Confidence Codes

AfterShip uses confidence_code to indicate the confidence level of an AI EDD prediction request. Each code reflects the statistical reliability of the result based on historical performance and input quality:

Confidence code	Description
10000	Highest confidence. Single EDD accuracy is statistically equivalent to Range EDD.
10001	High confidence. Both formats are reliable, but Range EDD historically performs with higher accuracy than Single EDD.
20001	High confidence for the range result and medium confidence for a single result.
30001	Medium confidence due to volatility in carrier transit performance.
30002	Medium confidence due to insufficient qualified data in this time range.
30003	Medium confidence due to the inaccuracy of the shipment_type field.
30004	Medium confidence. The origin or destination address lacks precision.

Choose what works for you

The table above displays the confidence_code returned with the AI EDD prediction. Since customer scenarios vary, we recommend selecting the method that best balances Accuracy, User Experience, and Coverage.

Prioritize the Best User Experience:
If you prefer displaying a specific date to reduce uncertainty:
- Codes 10000 & 10001: Display Single EDD.
  - 10000 carries the highest confidence level, demonstrating accuracy comparable to Range EDD.
  - While 10001 indicates high confidence for both formats, the Range format still holds a statistical advantage in accuracy over the Single format.
- Code 20001: Display Range EDD.
  - Single EDD confidence is slightly weaker. Using the range format helps avoid over-optimistic commitments while keeping the message user-friendly.
- Codes 3000x: Do not display EDD.
  - The prediction is not stable enough to offer a premium customer experience.
Prioritize Maximum Accuracy:
If your top priority is strictly minimizing the gap between the predicted and actual delivery date:
- Code 10000: Display Single EDD.
- Code 10001 & 20001: Display Range EDD.
  - We recommend using Range EDD to ensure a higher reliability.
- Codes 3000x: Do not display EDD
  - The prediction is not stable enough to offer a premium customer experience.
Prioritize Maximum Coverage:
If it is critical to display an estimate for as many shipments as possible:
- You may opt to display EDD results for all codes, including the 3000x series.
- Please strictly use Range EDD for any 3000x result to manage customer expectations. To improve these results, please refer to the optimization tips below.

Achieve high-confidence code

The accuracy of Estimated Delivery Date (EDD) predictions relies on the quality of the input data. The returned confidence code identifies the primary factor currently limiting the prediction's confidence level.

Code 30004 — Address Precision
This suggests that the origin or destination address lacks adequate granularity. Providing at least City-level address details helps the model locate endpoints more precisely.
Code 30003 — Shipment Type Clarity
This indicates that the shipment type is unspecified or unrecognized. Referring to the shipment type full list to input the correct name helps the model apply the correct transit patterns.
Code 30002 — Limited Training Data
This signifies that the insufficient training dataset is impacting the model's performance. Providing more related tracking data will assist our AI model in improving the predictions.
Code 30001 — Carrier Volatility
This indicates medium confidence due to unstable carrier performance. The carrier's historical transit times on this route exhibit high volatility. In this case, the model strictly limits the confidence level to reflect this reality.